Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges With Vladimir Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington empty-handed
The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for nearing several years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave the president leverage to pressure Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him special sway over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an deal.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the whole area.
The president often boasts about his ability to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
Putin may in fact be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Budapest.
The following day, Trump hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a reportedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being played by Putin.
"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately settled on advocating a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has rejected.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, saying that ending the war is turning out harder than he expected.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.