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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was announced. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Team Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is unusual to have nearly all player in a Test side being over 30, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injury, meaning there has been no obvious replacement plan.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a batch of similarly-aged players might mean a batch of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, suddenly, change is here, imposed on this Australian squad in the space of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only miss the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance undergoes a far greater shift with two players absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the team. Boland handling the new ball is not unusual in his domestic career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, half of it English, for the first Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many media stories portray him as relaxed. He could be wheeled onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Register to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have transitioned from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. Who knows what further injuries the first Test may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a track record of going down early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the series may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition setting in much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, rolling round the corner, and England ain’t seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.