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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.